SARS-CoV-2 NSP14 governs mutational instability and assists in making new SARS-CoV-2 variants (preprint)

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the rapidly evolving RNA virus behind the COVID-19 pandemic, has spawned numerous variants since its 2019 emergence. The multifunctional NSP14 enzyme, possessing exonuclease and mRNA capping capabilities, serves as a key player. Notably, single and co-occurring mutations within NSP14 significantly influence replication fidelity and drive variant diversification. This study comprehensively examines 120 co-mutations, 68 unique mutations, and 160 conserved residues across NSP14 homologs, shedding light on their implications for phylogenetic patterns, pathogenicity, and residue interactions. Quantitative physicochemical analysis categorizes 3953 NSP14 variants into three clusters, revealing genetic diversity. This research underscores the dynamic nature of SARS-CoV-2 evolution, primarily governed by NSP14 mutations. Understanding these genetic dynamics provides valuable insights for therapeutic and vaccine development.

Would New SARS-CoV-2 Variants Change the War Against COVID-19? (preprint)

The scientific, private and industrial sectors use a wide variety of technological platforms available to achieve protection against SARS-CoV-2, including vaccines. However, the virus evolves continually into new highly virulent variants, which might overcome the protection provided by vaccines and may re-expose the population to infections. Mass vaccinations should be continued in combination with more or less obligation mandatory non-pharmaceutical interventions. Therefore, the key questions to be answered are: (i) How to identify the primary and secondary infections of SARS-CoV-2? (ii) Why are neutralizing antibodies not long-lasting in both the cases of natural infections and post-vaccinations? (iii) Which are the factors responsible for this decay in neutralizing antibodies? (iv) What strategy could be adapted to develop long-term herd immunity? (v) Is the Spike the only vaccine candidate or a vaccine cocktail is better?

Non-Uniform Aspects of SARS-CoV-2 Intraspecies Evolution Reopen Questions on Its Origin (preprint)

Several hypotheses have been presented on the origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from its identification as the agent causing the current coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic. So far, no hypothesis has managed to identify the origin, and the issue has resurfaced. Here we have unfolded a pattern of distribution of several mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 proteins across different continents comprising 24 geo-locations. The results showed an evenly uneven distribution of unique protein variants, distinct mutations, unique frequency of common conserved residues, and mutational residues across the 24 geo-locations. Furthermore, ample mutations were identified in the evolutionarily conserved invariant regions in the SARS-CoV-2 proteins across almost all geo-locations we have considered. This pattern of mutations potentially breaches the law of evolutionary conserved functional units of the beta-coronavirus genus. These mutations may lead to several novel SARS-CoV-2 variants with a high degree of transmissibility and virulence. A thorough investigation on the origin and characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 needs to be conducted in the interest of science and to be prepared to meet the challenges of potential future pandemics.

An Issue of Concern: Unique Truncated ORF8 Protein Variants of SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

Open reading frame 8 (ORF8) protein is one of the most evolving accessory proteins in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). It was previously reported that the ORF8 protein inhibits presentation of viral antigens by the major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC-I) and interacts with host factors involved in pulmonary inflammation. The ORF8 protein assists SARS-CoV-2 to evade immunity and replication. Among many contributing mutations, Q27STOP, a mutation in the ORF8 protein defines the B.1.1.7 lineage of SARS-CoV-2, which is engendering the second wave of COVID-19. In the present study, 47 unique truncated ORF8 proteins (T-ORF8) due to the Q27STOP mutations were identified among 49055 available B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 sequences. The results show that only one of the 47 T-ORF8 variants spread to over 57 geo-locations in North America, and other continents which includes Africa, Asia, Europe and South America. Based on various quantitative features such as amino acid homology, polar/non-polar sequence homology, Shannon entropy conservation, and other physicochemical properties of all specific 47 T-ORF8 protein variants, a collection of nine possible T-ORF8 unique variants were defined. The question of whether T-ORF8 variants work similarly to ORF8 has yet to be investigated. A positive response to the question could exacerbate future COVID-19 waves, necessitating severe containment measures.

Variability of Accessory Proteins Rules the SARS-CoV-2 Pathogenicity (preprint)

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) which is pandemic with an estimated fatality rate less than 1% is ongoing. SARS-CoV-2 accessory proteins ORF3a, ORF6, ORF7a, ORF7b, ORF8, and ORF10 with putative functions to manipulate host immune mechanisms such as interferons, immune signaling receptor NLRP3 (NOD-, LRR-, and pyrin domain-containing 3) inflammasome, inflammatory cytokines such as interleukin {beta} (IL-1{beta}) are critical in COVID-19 pathology. Outspread variations of each of the six accessory proteins of all complete proteomes (available as of October 26, 2020, in the National Center for Biotechnology Information depository) of SARS-CoV-2, were observed across six continents. Across all continents, the decreasing order of percentage of unique variations in the accessory proteins was found to be ORF3a>ORF8>ORF7a>ORF6>ORF10>ORF7b. The highest and lowest unique variations of ORF3a were observed in South America and Oceania, respectively. This finding suggests that the wide variations of accessory proteins seem to govern the pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2, and consequently, certain propositions and recommendations can be made in the public interest.

A zebrafish model for COVID-19 recapitulates olfactory and cardiovascular pathophysiologies caused by SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted the search for animal models that recapitulate the pathophysiology observed in humans infected with SARS-CoV-2 and allow rapid and high throughput testing of drugs and vaccines. Exposure of larvae to SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) receptor binding domain (RBD) recombinant protein was sufficient to elevate larval heart rate and treatment with captopril, an ACE inhibitor, reverted this effect. Intranasal administration of SARS-CoV-2 S RBD in adult zebrafish recombinant protein caused severe olfactory and mild renal histopathology. Zebrafish intranasally treated with SARS-CoV-2 S RBD became hyposmic within minutes and completely anosmic by 1 day to a broad-spectrum of odorants including bile acids and food. Single cell RNA-Seq of the adult zebrafish olfactory organ indicated widespread loss of expression of olfactory receptors as well as inflammatory responses in sustentacular, endothelial, and myeloid cell clusters. Exposure of wildtype zebrafish larvae to SARS-CoV-2 in water did not support active viral replication but caused a sustained inhibition of ace2 expression, triggered type 1 cytokine responses and inhibited type 2 cytokine responses. Combined, our results establish adult and larval zebrafish as useful models to investigate pathophysiological effects of SARS-CoV-2 and perform pre-clinical drug testing and validation in an inexpensive, high throughput vertebrate model.

Forecasting COVID-19 cases at the Amazon region: a comparison of classical and machine learning models (preprint)

BACKGROUNDSince the first reports of COVID-19, decision-makers have been using traditional epidemiological models to predict the days to come. However, the enhancement of computational power, the demand for adaptable predictive frameworks, the short past of the disease, and uncertainties related to input data and prediction rules, also make other classical and machine learning techniques viable options. OBJECTIVEThis study investigates the efficiency of six models in forecasting COVID-19 confirmed cases with 17 days ahead. We compare the models autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Holt-Winters, support vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors regressor (KNN), random trees regressor (RTR), seasonal linear regression with change-points (Prophet), and simple logistic regression (SLR). MATERIAL AND METHODSWe implement the models to data provided by the health surveillance secretary of Amapaa, a Brazilian state fully carved in the Amazon rainforest, which has been experiencing high infection rates. We evaluate the models according to their capacity to forecast in different historical scenarios of the COVID-19 progression, such as exponential increases, sudden decreases, and stability periods of daily cases. To do so, we use a rolling forward splitting approach for out-of-sample validation. We employ the metrics RMSE, R-squared, and sMAPE in evaluating the model in different cross-validation sections. FINDINGSAll models outperform SLG, especially Holt-Winters, that performs satisfactorily in all scenarios. SVR and ARIMA have better performances in isolated scenarios. To implement the comparisons, we have created a web application, which is available online. CONCLUSIONThis work represents an effort to assist the decision-makers of Amapa in future decisions to come, especially under scenarios of sudden variations in the number of confirmed cases of Amapa, which would be caused, for instance, by new contamination waves or vaccination. It is also an attempt to highlight alternative models that could be used in future epidemics.

Possible transmission flow of SARS-CoV-2 based on ACE2 features (preprint)

Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) is the cellular receptor for the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that is engendering the severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The spike (S) protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 binds to the three sub-domains viz. amino acids (aa) 22-42, aa 79-84, and aa 330-393 of ACE2 on human cells to initiate entry. It was reported earlier that the receptor utilization capacity of ACE2 proteins from different species, such as cats, chimpanzees, dogs, and cattle, are different. A comprehensive analysis of ACE2 receptors of nineteen species was carried out in this study, and the findings propose a possible SARS-CoV-2 transmission flow across these nineteen species.

SARS-CoV-2 infection induces mixed M1/M2 phenotype in circulating monocytes and alterations in both dendritic cell and monocyte subsets (preprint)

Clinical manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection range from mild to critically severe. The aim of the study was to highlight the immunological events associated with the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection, with an emphasis on cells of innate immunity. Thirty COVID-19 patients with mild/moderate symptoms and 27 patients with severe/critically severe symptoms were recruited from the Clinical Center of Kragujevac during April 2020. Flow cytometric analysis was performed to reveal phenotypic and functional alterations of peripheral blood cells and to correlate them with the severity of the disease. In severe cases, the number of T and B lymphocytes, dendritic cells, NK cells, and HLA-DR-expressing cells was drastically decreased. In the monocyte population proportion between certain subsets was disturbed and cells coexpressing markers of M1 and M2 monocytes were found in intermediate and non-classical subsets. In mild cases decline in lymphocyte number was less pronounced and innate immunity was preserved as indicated by an increased number of myeloid and activated dendritic cells, NK cells that expressed activation marker at the same level as in control and by low expression of M2 marker in monocyte population. In patients with severe disease, both innate and adoptive immunity are devastated, while in patients with mild symptoms decline in lymphocyte number is lesser, and the innate immunity is preserved.

Notable sequence homology of the ORF10 protein introspects the architecture of SARS-COV-2 (preprint)

The global public health is endangered due to COVID-19 pandemic, which is caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Despite having similar pathology to MERS and SARS-CoV, the infection fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 is likely lower than 1%. SARS-CoV-2 has been reported to be uniquely characterized by the accessory protein ORF10, which contains eleven cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) epitopes of nine amino acids length each, across various human leukocyte antigen (HLA) subtypes. In this study, all missense mutations found in sequence databases were examined across twnety-two unique SARS-CoV-2 ORF10 variants that could possibly alter viral pathogenicity. Some of these mutations decrease the stability of ORF10, e.g. I4L and V6I were found in the MoRF region of ORF10 which may also possibly contribute to Intrinsic protein disorder. Furthermore, a physicochemical and structural comparative analysis was carried out on SARS-CoV-2 and Pangolin-CoV ORF10 proteins, which share 97.37% amino acid homology. The high degree of physicochemical and structural similarity of ORF10 proteins of SARS-CoV-2 and Pangolin-CoV open questions about the architecture of SARS-CoV-2 due to the disagreement of these two ORF10 proteins over their sub-structure (loop/coil region), solubility, antigenicity and change from the strand to coil at amino acid position 26, where tyrosine is present. Altogether, SARS-CoV-2 ORF10 is a promising pharmaceutical target and a protein which should be monitored for changes which correlate to change pathogenesis and clinical course of COVID-19 infection.

A unique view of SARS-CoV-2 through the lens of ORF8 protein (preprint)

Immune evasion is one of the unique characteristics of COVID-19 attributed to the ORF8 protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This protein is involved in modulating the host adaptive immunity through downregulating MHC (Major Histocompatibility Complex) molecules and innate immune responses by surpassing the interferon mediated antiviral response of the host. To understand the immune perspective of the host with respect to the ORF8 protein, a comprehensive study of the ORF8 protein as well as mutations possessed by it, is performed. Chemical and structural properties of ORF8 proteins from different hosts, that is human, bat and pangolin, suggests that the ORF8 of SARS-CoV-2 and Bat RaTG13-CoV are very much closer related than that of Pangolin-CoV. Eighty-seven mutations across unique variants of ORF8 (SARS-CoV-2) are grouped into four classes based on their predicted effects. Based on geolocations and timescale of collection, a possible flow of mutations was built. Furthermore, conclusive flows of amalgamation of mutations were endorsed upon sequence similarity and amino acid conservation phylogenies. Therefore, this study seeks to highlight the uniqueness of rapid evolving SARS-CoV-2 through the ORF8.